Predicting the 2008 Election through Online WOM

The folks at WOM agency MotiveQuest are on to a very interesting experiment.  They’re using their proprietary online promoter score that measures online conversation to predict the the 2008 Presidential Election outcome.

From a purely branding perspective, this is a great way for MotiveQuest to “walk the walk.”  Through their BrandAdvocacy08 website, MotiveQuest will prove to the world that their methodology works and can even predict such major events as the election’s winner. 

In terms of the public affairs, measuring online WOM is something that electeds, candidates and organizations should be doing.  There’s a lot of conversation happening out there pertaining to people and issues.  Organizations first must understand the conversation and listen to what’s happening.  Next, they have to find the right way to get involved.

If anything, Obama’s campaign has spurred WOM from his supporters and has built a solid community around his candidacy.  For McCain, his WOM never took off and there hasn’t been a real community to coalesce around him.  I think McCain will look back in a couple of years and resent the different directions his campaign people pushed him to go.  His brand became foreign to himself and he was clearly uncomfortable with John McCain, the candidate.  Had he been true to his own brand, I think the online communities would have formed in a major way around McCain the candidate because it would have been clear he stands for something.

Presidential Politics and Online Branding

I recently received an email from Sen. John McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis asking me check out the new McCain campaign video, “Fan Club.” This 30-second spot mocks Sen. Barack Obama’s status as celebrity while sarcastically asking you to support Obama’s positions that would increase taxes and placing your faith in an inexperienced leader.

There are several problems with this approach. First, McCain has defined some of his opponents flaw but offers little (or nothing) in the way of his own ideas or policies. So, we walk away from this video knowing what McCain isn’t about…but not what he is about. In other words viewers are left asking, what are McCain’s brand attributes?

Second, pushing out the campaign’s newest 30-second spot reminds me a lot of the failed Giuliani primary campaign that used social media to broadcast, rather than engage his target audiences. The video’s landing page has no room for commenting, nor does it offer users to forward the video to a friend. All it does offer is for the user to sign-up. And even the most basic online user knows this simply leads to more one-way emails.

It appears McCain’s campaign team is ready to employ their own marketing tactics without first recognizing their brand. McCain has created the persona of independent-minded politics, doing what’s right – even it’s not popular – and having a clean image (campaign finance). Where are the tactics using these brand attributes?

The McCain team had better take a lesson from CPGs. Once they start competing on price, products become a commodity. Consumers will move on to the next product.

The good news for McCain is that there’s still enough time coming out of the conventions to get back in touch with the brand McCain has built over his Senatorial tenure.